Learning / Get used to living with peak oil. Worldwide, humans now consume 3 barrels (bbl) of oil for every 1 bbl of new oil discovered. Seventy percent of global petroleum is controlled by nations like Venezuela or Iran instead of by the big oil firms, meaning less yield, less discovery, and poorer maintenance. Global demand, presently at 86 million barrels a day (m/bbl/d), grows annually at roughly 2 m/bbl/d, while older, played-out wells lose 4 m/bbl/d in production. So we need 6 m/bbl/d more just to meet demand this year, then a little more next year, and more the next. Because the easy oil has already been found globally, it costs significantly more to find and pump new discoveries. The world’s economy and Hawai’i rely on oil to make life flow. Everything arriving in the islands–people, food, goods and energy itself–arrives via oil. Because the easy oil has already been found globally, it costs significantly more to find and pump new discoveries.

Meanwhile, for the first time in history, we face a double challenge: shrinking oil supplies versus global warming. (For local impacts of climate change, see our cover stories “Hawai’i’s Carbon Footprint” on Jan. 23 and “Blue Hawai’i” on Feb. 6 at [HonoluluWeekly.com].)

Unfortunately, the global economy, including Hawai’i, still depends on oil to make life flow. Everything arriving in the islands–people, food, goods and energy itself–arrives via oil. Rather than continue to expect the ship to bring whatever we need to survive out here, we need to work on how we can move rapidly from peak oil and rising global warming to a dramatically reshaped economic system running on renewable energy and 80 percent fewer carbon emissions.

What does this mean for our daily lives?

Power prices

You may have noticed that your HECO electricity rates have soared 42.6 percent–plus over the last year, from 19.3 to 28.4 cents per kilowatt hour (kwh). HECO points the finger at soaring oil prices (ditto for Matson, airlines, gas stations, food producers and sellers). At this pace, electrical power rates will more than double every two years.

Solution: In addition to no carbon emissions, renewable solar, wind and wave energy offer fixed prices, which is leading the military to go solar on O’ahu. Of course, we’ve still got the challenge of producing and storing enough alternative energy to meet our needs. And photovoltaic (PV) systems are expensive to install.

People get ready, solar’s a-coming

That said, HECO’s Peter Rosegg points out that 73 families moved to solar and net metering last year, plus 20 more so far this year, with another 121 applying and still others eyeing the possibility. National statistics show PV solar for homes paying back two to four times their cost over a thirty year lifetime.

Solar prices are likely to drop when new, less efficient plastic PV panels in 2010 begin to sell for as little as 1/20th the price of present silicon PV panels. They will, however, require more space. Luckily, a new thin solar PV film is slowly making its way onto everything from car exteriors to clothing.

The oil we eat

Food costs, worldwide, are linked to the skyrocketing cost of oil and, increasingly, biofuel crops such as corn. Consequently food prices rose 10 percent in the United States last year and 23 percent in China, rates at which the cost of food would double in roughly seven and three years, respectively. Pervasive water shortages contribute to the trouble. As a result, food prices and food scarcities have begun to set off civil disturbances in Asia.

U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki Moon reminds us that in a hungry world, with 1.3 billion people short of food daily, turning food into fuel constitutes a terrible idea. Nonetheless, Congressional subsidies will push some 30 percent of this year’s smaller U.S. corn crop toward becoming ethanol. Auwe!

Perils of palm oil

Adding fuel to the fire (sorry), HECO’s biodiesel plans have arrived just as biodiesel crop costs in the United States are tripling! Plus HECO has specified palm oil, the planters of which, in Indonesia, are running farmers off their land and burning forests to clear them for plantations. NASA satellite photos verify the fires, which the government of Indonesia cannot stop, it announced last year.

And scientists say that leaving these forests intact results in 25 to 50 percent more effective limits on carbon releases than using the same land to grow, then ship and burn palm oil. Not to mention that it’s probably safe to say that most of us HECO ratepayers don’t want our electricity supply tied to deforestation, much less to human rights abuses.

Reducing energy demand

Nonetheless, HECO has some useful programs underway. Witness the over 25,000 homes receiving a $3 monthly cut in their electric bill for having a cutoff available to give HECO power as needed, freeing up some 17 megawatts (MW). Commercial users have a similar option prorated, saving HECO when demand soars or grid load drops. HECO cites having cut demand for some 125MW of power capacity over the last decade, saving the atmosphere some 665,000 tons of GHG emissions.

HECO’s also being proactive about energy conserving incentives. Those buying Energy Star appliances under its 2007 plan could get rebates from $45–$75 (and $1–$3 for every compact fluorescent lightbulb) and had over 9,000 takers in its first six months.

Catching energy waves

Off Maui’s windward side, two miles out past Jaws, waves will soon generate over 2.7 megawatts of 92 percent constant, clean power. OceanLinx will anchor three devices, each the size of a three-bedroom house, to capture and provide wave energy for 1500 Maui homes. The devices extend above water, making maintenance easier. Cost? $17 to $20 million.

Representative Cynthia Thielen says that Hawai’i has enough wave energy to supply 100 percent of the outer islands’ electricity, plus 80 percent of O’ahu’s needs. Kauai’s public utility is considering wave energy. OceanLinx says kwh costs will match or beat fossil fuel energy costs. Will O’ahu catch a wave?

Everyone knows it’s windy

More good news: Wind investments in Hawai’i have multiplied rapidly. We have UPC Wind Hawai’i’s 30 MW Maui wind farm finishing its first successful year. The Big Island South Point wind farm has bumped up from 7.5 MW to 20 MW. Shell Oil now plans a major wind farm on ‘Ulupalakua Ranch above Makena on Maui, with a a 40 MW capacity, for $200 million. And HECO eyes major wind farming near Kahuku.

But the biggest news yet is a 300 to 400 MW wind farm planned by David Murdoch/Castle and Cooke for Lana’i, with an underwater cable to bring the power to O’ahu, maybe to military users. Estimated tab: $700 million, plus grid adjustments on O’ahu. And UPC has expressed interest in another, 200-plus MW wind farm on the breezy west end of Moloka’i, which might also send power to O’ahu by cable. Inter-island power is an old idea being resurrected. In the 1880’s King Kalakaua and Thomas Edison discussed geothermal power going by cable from the Big Isle to O’ahu.

The intermittent power from wind led HECO engineers to invent an Electronic Shock Absorber for the Big Island wind farms–a battery system akin to the uninterruptible power supply for your computer, with power flowing through a system of batteries to keep the flow constant. Elsewhere, new energy storage is taking the form of compressed air that can later release to create electricity.

O’ahuans who may recall Leeward citizens defeating the wind farm proposed above our island’s Kahe Point may wonder at the willingness of outer island folks to adorn their landscapes with windmills that may send power for our air conditioners and water heaters. Let’s hope that new jobs and lower power costs will make it worthwhile for them–and support them by speaking out.

Needed: megabucks for alternative megawatts

Hawai’i will need several billion dollars invested in renewable energy technologies to wean us significantly off oil. Innovations, efficiency improvements, grid restructuring, and the size of the investment make it tough for investors to know when to jump in. Who locally has anything approaching that kind of money and risk tolerance–the State Pension Fund, Kamehameha Schools? OHA? Whoever, investors and taxpayers should keep in mind that, as we’ve reached peak oil, prices of that non-renewing resource are going to keep spiraling up. By contrast, Hawai’i’s natural wealth in sun, wind and waves should result in rich and safe returns for all.

For an overview of incentives offered for buying Energy Star appliances and solar energy systems in Hawai’i, see the map at [desireusa.org] and click on our state.

For more information, visit [kanuhawaii.org] and [pikosustainhawaii.org].

Coming soon at sea:

[oceanlinx.com/Currentprojects.asp]

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